When we apply this logic to China, what will our predictions be? Does China have an education system which will give all citizens a fair start and thereby prepare an eventual liberalization?
The Taipei Times writes what Scott Rozelle of Stanford University has to say about this:
China has the entrepreneurs and the money to make this happen, Rozelle said, but it remains critically weak in one respect — education. While in Taiwan, South Korea and Japan education from kindergarten to grade 12 was almost universal by 1978, in China today, less than 2 percent of Chinese in rural areas receive higher education and only 8 percent of junior high graduates go to senior high.Look at this: even High School in China is capitalistic and therefore unaffordable for most. This looks like the country is bound for a couple more decades of evil dictatorship! (And even if they were to change the education system now, it would take at least one generation of people growing up for the changes to take effect... )
Education at a rural high school costs US$160 a year, which, in US terms, is the equivalent of sending a child to an Ivy League university. Adjusted for purchasing power, putting a child in high school represents decades of work for an ordinary worker in rural China, he said.
It's true that China has some very good universities and probably a lot of educated people, too. But what is this compared to hundreds of millions who lack proper education? And a government who relies un manipulating those uneducated masses in order to remain in power? Also China seems to have a general mentality of the "right of the stronger" as opposed to at least some spirit of community that was present in the communist regimes of the Eastern Block. But let's see what the future brings...